Down at the Drips: What Lipstick, Underpants & Beer Say About Your Restaurant’s Future
Because before a recession knocks, it whispers through eyeliner and lager.
Before Wall Street panics or GDP figures make headlines, the real economy begins to shift quietly, subtly, and sometimes hilariously in the aisles of everyday consumption.
You just have to know where to look.
💄 Lipstick sales go up.
🩲 Men buy fewer underpants.
💇♀️ Salon visits dip.
🍻 Craft beer takes a hit.
🛒 Luxury is redefined — not by price tags, but by emotional ROI.
These aren’t just fun facts. They’re early-warning signs of belt-tightening, and for F&B operators, they’re a cue to shift gears — fast, smart, and creatively.
So What Are These Strange But True Indicators?
💄 The Lipstick Index
Coined by Leonard Lauder, it notes that in tough times, people skip big luxuries but still splurge on affordable confidence boosts — like lipstick. Call it budgeted beauty therapy.
🩲 The Underwear Economy
Alan Greenspan once said that declining men’s underwear sales are a recession flag — because it’s the one thing no one sees, and men delay replacing until absolutely necessary.
💇♀️ The Salon Squeeze
From dye jobs to blowouts, services tied to feeling good get spaced out. It’s not total abstinence — it’s frequency reduction. (Sound familiar? Think dine-out frequency.)
🍺 The Craft Beer Crack
People don’t stop drinking — they just trade the $18 microbrew for a $6 six-pack. They seek value, not absence.
What This Means For Restaurants & Bars
When consumer behaviour shifts, smart operators pivot — not by slashing prices, but by recalibrating perceived value. Here’s how:
🎯Target “Conscious Indulgence”
Guests still want to treat themselves — just not extravagantly.
Offer:
- High-impact, low-cost items (e.g. a “Mood Lifter Dessert” under $10)
- Theatrical touches (a tableside pour, a sizzle, a spark — drama sells)
- “Guilt-free” small luxuries (gluten-free brownie flights? go for it)
📊 Use Your Data Like a Therapist
Track patterns in guest behavior that go beyond volume:
- Are diners swapping mains for appetizers?
- Is lunch average check dropping while traffic holds steady?
- Has beer selection shifted to entry-level SKUs?
This is your version of the Lipstick Index. These micro-trends reveal mood shifts before Tripadvisor does.
👛 Bundle Emotion, Not Just Product
Create comfort-first bundles:
- “Tight Budget, Full Belly” weekday sets
- Date-night kits with wine pairing & shared plates
- “Netflix & Nourish” takeout packs
Don’t discount — reframe. A $38 set menu feels value-driven. A 20% discount screams desperate.
📆 Push Off-Peak, Push Community
When people dine out less frequently, make it count.
Introduce:
- Neighbourhood Nights (locals-only perks)
- Pay-It-Forward Mondays (share a meal, build goodwill)
- Happy Hour 2.0 (gamify it with QR codes and mystery items)
🧠 Automate Smartly, Act Humanely
AI commentary helps you detect downshifts by segment and menu. But the response must feel human — warm, witty, and reassuring. People want certainty, not robots, in uncertain times.
Closing Bite
Recessions test businesses — but they also reward those who listen, pivot, and connect. Your guests are still out there. They’re just looking for places that “get them.” Be the place that reads the room better than anyone else.
As the world holds its breath and buys more lipstick, fewer underpants, and cheaper beer…
Make sure your restaurant is doing more than watching. Make sure it’s adapting.
About the Authors
Puneet Mahindroo – Managing Director – Singapore, Hotelivate
Co-founded PerfectCheck, a one-of-a-kind automated Restaurant Revenue Management SaaS platform that revolutionizes how restaurants and bars drive revenue and boost profitability. Drawing on over 20 years of expertise in revenue management, performance marketing, and distribution, Puneet co-founded PerfectCheck to address the unique operational and commercial challenges faced by food and beverage businesses. Powered by AI, the platform delivers automated demand forecasting, table and seating optimization, staff performance coaching, smart menu design, and real-time prescriptive recommendations—helping F&B outlets achieve greater efficiency, maximize revenue, and enhance profitability like never before.
Manav Thadani – Founder Chairman, Hotelivate
Wears another hat as a restaurateur. In 2023, he fulfilled a long-standing dream by co-founding INJA, a distinctive restaurant situated at The Manor in New Delhi. Partnering with Dubai-based Atelier House Hospitality, he brought to life a one-of-a-kind culinary concept that harmoniously marries Indian and Japanese cuisines. Earlier this year the restaurant made it to the extended list of Asia Top 50 (#87). He then opened Camillo’s Pizzeria. While it’s known for its artisanal pizzas, the restaurant also boasts a diverse menu that appeals to a wide range of tastes, showcasing a creative fusion of classic Italian flavors and modern culinary flair. Next on Manav’s list is SoBo20 this summer in South Mumbai at Marine Drive Intercontinental, where he and his partners are creating and will operate this innovative concept.
For more information, please contact Puneet at [email protected] and Manav at [email protected]
